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IMF cuts estimates on 2022 GDP, Italy does not escape the scissor kick

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They thicken the clouds on the global recovery to the test of “multiple” challenges, on all the uncertainties dictated by the variant Omicron and the surge ofinflation. Added to these are disruptions in the supply chain, volatility in energy prices and localized wage pressures.

All factors that make the trend of economic growth more gray, especially in this first part of the year. Based on these considerations, the International Monetary Fund , in the update of the World Economic Outlook published yesterday, it decided to cut the growth estimates of the world economy for 2022.

After + 5.9% in 2021, GDP is expected to grow this year 4.4%, which is 0.5 percentage points lower than the October forecast. “The global economy enters 2022 in a weaker than expected position”, says the Fund, stressing that the downward revision for this year is linked to the cut estimates for the two largest economies in the world, the United States and China.

In particular, the forecasts for China indicate a GDP up 4.8% in 2022 and 5.2% in 2023, forecasts down by 0.8 and 0.1 percentage points respectively compared to three months ago. The estimate for 2021 has been revised from 8% to 8.1%. As for the United States, the 2022 GDP is estimated at 4% from 5.2% three months ago, after the + 5.6% estimated for 2021 (down from the previous + 6%).

GDP Italy: IMF cuts 2022 estimates, raises those of 2023

The Italian economy does not escape the scissoring. The Washington institute also revised its growth forecast down by 0.4 percentage points Italian GDP this year to 3.8% from 4.2% three months ago against + 6.2% in 2021 (from 5.8% previously).
For the next year, growth was instead revised upwards by 0.6 percentage points to 2.2%. The IMF’s pessimism on 2022 adds to that already highlighted by the Bank of Italy on Italian growth forecasts.

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These are estimates that do not take into account the difficult Italian political situation dealing with the election of the new President of the Republic and the possible post scenarios that will emerge from the vote for the Quirinale.

The European comparison

If Italy sets the pace in 2002, the other major European economies do no better. Also slowing down Germany which will grow this year by 3.8% (-0.8%) but the next by 2.5% (+ 0.9%). There France it will mark + 3.5% in 2022 (-0.4%) and + 1.8% in 2023 (unchanged). For the Spain growth of 5.8% is expected this year (-0.6%) and 3.8% next (+ 1.2%). GDP British it is expected to + 4.7% this year (-0.3%) and + 2.2% in 2023 (+ 0.3%).

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Positive note. The effects of the Omicron variant of the coronavirus “will weigh on the first quarter of 2022, but its effects will begin to wear off starting in the second quarter,” he wrote Gopinath excursion, Deputy Director of the International Monetary Fund, in the IMF blog post accompanying the publication of the World Economic Outlook update. “The new variant appears to lead to less severe disease than the Delta variant and the record increase in infections is expected to drop rather quickly.”

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