Waiting for the veil to be lifted on the 2021 accounts of Intesa SanPaolo and Unicredit, Credit Suisse turns the spotlight on the two Italian banks, updating its estimates.
Pending the accounts for the fourth quarter of 2021, which will be released next January 28, the research office of the Swiss bank confirmed the Unicredit un rating outperform with target price at € 15.10, which implies an upside potential of around 15% compared to current values.
The judgment is based on the bank’s growth expectations, “in particular in Central and Eastern Europe; higher resilient supply buffers that offer flexibility amid Omicron uncertainty; significant capital options that offer management significant value creation potential either in terms of increasing capital distribution or as a resource for further growth “reads a note, in which analysts say they expect” management to engage in different conversations about potential mergers and acquisitions in several geographical areas, in line with the strategy outlined in December and supported by the flexibility granted by the excess capital.
On the accounts front, expectations are for a 2021 net profit of € 2.3 billion, which is expected to double to € 4.1 billion this year. At the same time, earnings per share are expected to be 1.1 euros, up to 2.09 in 2022.
The judgment on the title is more cautious Intesa Sanpaolo. Waiting for the new strategic plan of management, which gives greater visibility on the profitability objectives and the prospects for return on capital, the analysts confirmed the rating neutral with a target price of 2.5 euros, in line with current prices
“While we recognize an encouraging outlook on fees and revenues, we remain cautious about the headwinds of the bank’s short-term net interest income. In addition, we see some downside risks stemming from a slower than expected normalization of the cost of risk resulting from management’s reported imminent increase in provisions related to the bank’s current NPL stock. We expect the fourth quarter business plan to offer more details on management’s new goals and headwinds to capital. “
Pending further indications, Credit Suisse experts’ net profit estimates are for growth to 4.1 billion in 2021 (from 3.2 in 2020), up further to 5 billion in 2022.