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Alarm by Ray Dalio: “United States on the verge of civil war”

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High taxes and inflation combined with widespread wealth inequality and unprecedented partisanship are pushing the US to the brink of civil war: the alarm comes from the billionaire Ray Dalio. The founder and president of Bridgewater Associates, the largest hedge fund in the world, who in post du LinkedIn paints a gloomy picture in the year of the US mid-term elections.

When foreign powers like China And Russia challenge a country struggling with high levels of disagreement means that we are “in a particularly risky period”, wrote Dalio. “I think we are in this period now.”

“An increase in the populism and extremism, in addition to the quarrel between left and right, are the classic indicators of future conflicts “Dalio explained, adding that the extremist political forces they see respect for the law as secondary to victory. The reference is to what happened on January 6, 2021, when the supporters of the president Donald Trump they stormed the United States Capitol in an attempt to overturn the outcome of the presidential elections.

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Dalio, who is promoting his new book on the rise and fall of nations (“The changing order of the world. History of the successes and failures of nations “) identified six phases of internal disorder and order. It all starts with the creation of a new government followed by periods of peace and prosperity. Ultimately, overspending and the accumulation of wealth and power weigh on the system, leading to “bad financial conditions and intense conflicts”, which is the stage we are in now, according to Dalio. The next step is the civil war and the revolution, which leads straight back to the first phase.

“History shows that raising taxes and cutting spending when there are large wealth gaps and poor economic conditions, more than anything else, is a harbinger of civil wars or revolutions of some kind,” he explained.

Mid-Term elections: for Dalio the triumph of extremisms

But let’s go back to the United States. In the mid-term election year of 2022, Dalio predicts that moderates will lose seats while extremists and populists from both parties will gain them.
Not only. The US financier also provides that the sentences of the Supreme Court they will become more controversial. By the 2024 presidential election, he said, there will be a “battle between right-wing populists and left-wing populists in which neither side will agree to lose.”

“Such a sequence of events will be consistent with the typical path leading to civil war,” he concluded, explaining that it is not excluded whether there will be deaths in this conflict, as happened on January 6 last year.

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